Lease rollover risk is the probability that tenants will vacate at the end of their lease terms, combined with the financial impact of replacing them. For owners of small commercial portfolios with five to fifteen tenants, a single anchor tenant departure can push your Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) below 1.0x and trigger a technical loan default. Understanding how to model, measure, and mitigate this risk is essential for protecting cash flow and maintaining access to favorable financing.
This guide walks through the complete process of modeling lease rollover risk in small CRE portfolios, from calculating your Weighted Average Lease Term (WALT) to stress-testing cash flow scenarios that satisfy lender requirements in 2026.
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What Is Lease Rollover Risk and Why Does It Matter?
Lease rollover risk refers to the financial exposure a property owner faces when existing leases expire. It encompasses three related costs: the probability of tenant non-renewal, the duration of vacancy between tenants (the "dark period"), and the direct costs of securing a replacement tenant including tenant improvements (TI), leasing commissions (LC), and rent concessions.
For small commercial portfolios, this risk is amplified because each tenant represents a larger percentage of total revenue. If you own a five-tenant retail strip and your anchor tenant leaves, you may lose 30-40% of your gross income overnight. That concentration makes lease rollover the single largest operational risk for small-portfolio owners, often more dangerous than interest rate fluctuations or market-wide vacancy trends.
Lenders are acutely aware of this dynamic. When you apply for a commercial refinance or bridge loan, the loan committee will scrutinize your lease expiration schedule before approving terms. A portfolio with concentrated near-term expirations will receive lower loan-to-value (LTV) offers, higher rate spreads, and potentially cash sweep requirements that restrict your distributions.
The good news: lease rollover risk is modelable and manageable. With the right framework, you can quantify your exposure, present a credible risk mitigation plan to lenders, and structure your leases to minimize future concentration.
Contact our underwriting team for a free assessment of your portfolio's lease rollover exposure.
How Do You Calculate Weighted Average Lease Term (WALT)?
The Weighted Average Lease Term (WALT) is the foundational metric for measuring lease rollover risk. It tells you how many months of contracted rental income your portfolio has remaining, weighted by each tenant's share of total rent. A higher WALT means more runway before you face renewal risk.
The formula is straightforward:
WALT = Sum of (Each Tenant's Annual Rent x Months Remaining) / Total Annual Portfolio Rent
For example, if your portfolio earns $500,000 per year in total rent and the sum of each tenant's rent-weighted remaining term equals 17,416,000, your WALT is 34.8 months.
Here is a worked example using a five-tenant retail strip center to illustrate the calculation in practice.
In this example, the portfolio has a WALT of 34.8 months. That falls in the moderate-risk range. The anchor grocery store contributes the most stability with 54 months remaining, while the dry cleaner with only 8 months left poses the most immediate rollover risk.
Most commercial lenders use the following WALT benchmarks when evaluating small portfolios:
- Above 48 months: Low risk. Favorable refinancing terms available, LTV up to 75%.
- 24-48 months: Moderate risk. Standard terms, but lenders will review the expiration schedule closely.
- Below 24 months: High risk. Expect lower LTV (55-65%), higher rates, or cash reserve requirements.
Calculate your WALT at least quarterly and update it whenever a lease is signed, renewed, or terminated. This metric should be a standing item in your asset management reporting.
What Are the True Costs of Tenant Turnover?
The direct cost of replacing a tenant goes far beyond lost rent. When modeling lease rollover risk, you need to account for four categories of expense: vacancy carrying costs, tenant improvement allowances, leasing commissions, and rent concessions. Together, these costs can equal 80-100% of the first year's rent from the replacement tenant, according to CBRE and Cushman and Wakefield industry benchmarks.
Vacancy duration varies dramatically by property type. Industrial spaces in strong markets may sit empty for only 3-6 months, while general office space in secondary markets can remain vacant for 12-18 months or longer. These timelines directly affect your cash flow projections and DSCR calculations.
For a practical example, consider a tenant paying $84,000 per year in a retail strip who does not renew. Assuming a 9-month vacancy, $25 per square foot in TI costs on a 2,000 SF suite, a 5% leasing commission on a 5-year replacement lease, and one month of free rent, the total rollover cost could exceed $90,000, which is more than a full year of rent from that space.
This is why proactive lease management matters. Starting renewal conversations 18-24 months before expiration gives you time to negotiate retention deals that cost far less than replacing the tenant.
How Do Staggered Lease Expirations Reduce Risk?
Lease staggering is the most effective structural defense against rollover risk. The principle is simple: arrange your lease expirations so that no more than 20-25% of your total rental income expires in any single year. This ensures that even in a worst-case scenario where all expiring tenants leave simultaneously, your remaining cash flow can still cover debt service.
Achieving proper stagger requires intentional lease structuring. When negotiating new leases or renewals, consider offering slightly better terms (an extra month of free rent, a modest TI bump) in exchange for a lease term that fills a gap in your expiration schedule. If you have two tenants expiring in 2028 and none in 2030, push the next renewal toward a 2030 or 2031 expiration.
For portfolios that already have concentrated expirations, the path to staggering is a multi-year project. Prioritize renewing your most creditworthy tenants first, locking them into longer terms, and then use those renewals to create gaps in the schedule that new tenants can fill.
Lenders recognize and reward well-staggered portfolios. A five-tenant retail center with no more than one lease expiring per year will command better terms than an identical property with three leases expiring in the same 12-month window, even if the current occupancy and rent levels are identical.
Use our DSCR calculator to model how different expiration scenarios affect your coverage ratio.
How Should You Stress-Test Cash Flow for Rollover Scenarios?
Stress testing is the process of modeling what happens to your portfolio's cash flow and DSCR under various tenant departure scenarios. Every small-portfolio owner should run three scenarios annually: a base case, a moderate stress case, and a worst case.
Base Case Scenario
Assign each tenant a renewal probability based on their credit profile, lease term remaining, business performance, and market conditions. Multiply each tenant's rent by their renewal probability to calculate expected effective gross income. Then subtract projected vacancy costs, TI, and leasing commissions for tenants modeled as non-renewing.
Moderate Stress Case
Assume your weakest tenant (lowest renewal probability) vacates, plus one additional tenant with a moderate probability fails to renew. Model the full replacement cost for both spaces, including dark periods appropriate to your property type. Calculate DSCR under this scenario.
Worst Case
Assume your anchor tenant and one additional tenant depart simultaneously. This scenario tests whether your portfolio can survive the loss of its two largest income sources. If your DSCR drops below 1.0x under this scenario, you need to build reserves or restructure your financing.
The bar chart above illustrates how quickly DSCR deteriorates in a small portfolio. A property with a healthy 1.55x DSCR at full occupancy can drop to 0.98x with the loss of a single anchor tenant, meaning the property no longer covers its debt payments.
For value-add investors acquiring properties with near-term rollover risk, stress testing is especially critical. Your acquisition underwriting should model the realistic cost of stabilizing the tenant base, not just the upside once it is stabilized.
What DSCR Do Lenders Require During Rollover Periods?
Lenders apply specific DSCR thresholds when evaluating portfolios with near-term lease expirations. Most commercial lenders require a minimum 1.15x to 1.25x DSCR even during projected rollover periods, not just at current occupancy.
Here is how different lender types approach rollover risk in their underwriting:
Banks and credit unions typically stress-test your DSCR by assuming the next expiring tenant departs and modeling a 6-12 month re-leasing period. If the stressed DSCR falls below 1.15x, they may require a cash reserve or reduce the loan amount.
CMBS lenders use standardized underwriting models that apply specific vacancy and credit loss assumptions based on your tenant mix and lease terms. Properties with WALT under 36 months may face additional reserves or coverage requirements.
Bridge lenders are more flexible with near-term rollover risk because their loans are shorter-term, but they price the risk into higher rates. A portfolio with concentrated expirations may see bridge rates of 9-12% compared to 8-10% for a stabilized asset. Explore our bridge loan programs for properties in transition.
Life insurance companies and agencies offer the most favorable terms but have the strictest requirements. They typically require WALT above 48 months, no single tenant exceeding 25-30% of income, and minimum 1.30x DSCR under stress scenarios.
To satisfy lender requirements, prepare a detailed lease rollover analysis as part of your loan package. Include your WALT calculation, tenant-by-tenant renewal probabilities, stress-tested DSCR projections, and your mitigation strategy. Lenders appreciate borrowers who understand and proactively manage this risk.
Refer to our 2026 commercial real estate loan LTV benchmarks for additional context on how lease profiles affect leverage.
How Do You Model Tenant Renewal Probability?
Renewal probability modeling assigns a percentage likelihood of renewal to each tenant based on observable factors. This is not guesswork. Experienced asset managers and lenders use a consistent set of criteria to estimate whether a tenant will stay or leave.
The primary factors that drive renewal probability include:
Tenant credit quality. National credit tenants (Walgreens, Dollar General, FedEx) renew at rates of 85-95%. Local single-location businesses renew at 55-70%. The credit profile is the strongest single predictor of renewal behavior.
Remaining lease term and options. Tenants with renewal options built into their lease are more likely to exercise them, especially if the option rate is at or below market. Always model option periods in your analysis.
Sales performance. For retail tenants, same-store sales trends are a leading indicator of renewal intent. A tenant with declining revenue over two consecutive years has a significantly lower renewal probability, regardless of their credit rating.
Location dependency. Businesses that depend heavily on their specific location (medical practices with a built-out suite, restaurants with a loyal customer base) have higher switching costs and therefore higher renewal probability.
Market rent comparison. If your in-place rent is significantly above market, the tenant may leave for a cheaper alternative. If your rent is below market, the tenant has strong financial incentive to renew.
By assigning probability-weighted renewal estimates to each tenant, you can calculate an expected vacancy rate for each year in your projection period. This is far more useful than a single vacancy assumption (such as 5% across the board) because it reflects the actual composition and risk profile of your tenant base.
What Refinancing Strategies Work Best for Rollover-Heavy Portfolios?
If your portfolio has concentrated lease expirations approaching a refinance date, you have several strategic options. The right approach depends on how much time you have before the expirations and how strong your remaining tenant base is.
Refinance early. If your current loan matures in 18-24 months and you have significant rollovers approaching around the same time, consider refinancing now while your occupancy and WALT are stronger. Waiting until tenants depart will weaken your negotiating position.
Use bridge financing as a bridge. If tenants have already departed or are likely to leave before you can secure permanent financing, a bridge loan gives you 12-36 months to re-lease the space and stabilize the property before pursuing permanent debt. Bridge lenders are comfortable with transitional tenant profiles.
Negotiate early renewals. Approaching tenants 18-24 months before their lease expiration with a reasonable renewal offer is one of the highest-ROI activities in asset management. Even a modest concession (2-3% rent reduction, a small TI allowance) is dramatically cheaper than the full cost of replacing a tenant.
Build reserves proactively. Setting aside 3-6 months of rent from each expiring tenant's space into a rollover reserve demonstrates responsible management to lenders. Many loan agreements allow you to use lender-held reserves to offset TI and LC costs during re-leasing.
Consider partial interest-only periods. Some refinance structures allow 12-24 months of interest-only payments at the beginning of the loan term, which reduces your debt service obligation during the period when rollover risk is highest. This can be the difference between maintaining a 1.15x DSCR and dropping below 1.0x.
Get in touch with our team to discuss refinancing strategies tailored to your portfolio's lease profile.
How Should You Build an Annual Lease Rollover Management Plan?
Effective lease rollover management is not a one-time exercise. It requires a systematic annual process that integrates with your broader asset management strategy. Here is the framework that institutional investors use, adapted for small-portfolio owners.
Quarterly WALT updates. Recalculate your WALT every quarter and track the trend. A declining WALT is an early warning signal that requires action.
Tenant health monitoring. Review each tenant's business health at least annually. For retail tenants, request sales reports if your lease includes a co-tenancy or percentage rent clause. For office and industrial tenants, monitor headcount changes and business news.
18-month renewal pipeline. Maintain a rolling list of all tenants whose leases expire within 18 months. Begin outreach to each tenant at the 18-month mark, well before they start shopping for alternatives.
TI and LC budgeting. Reserve funds for anticipated tenant improvements and leasing commissions based on your stress test results. A common approach is to set aside 5-10% of gross rental income annually into a rollover reserve fund.
Lender communication. If you have a loan with financial covenants tied to occupancy or DSCR, communicate proactively with your lender about upcoming rollovers and your mitigation plan. Lenders respond much better to borrowers who surface issues early than to those who let covenants breach without warning.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good WALT for a small commercial portfolio?
A Weighted Average Lease Term (WALT) above 48 months is considered low risk by most commercial lenders. WALT between 24 and 48 months falls in the moderate-risk range and will receive standard underwriting scrutiny. WALT below 24 months is high risk and will result in lower LTV offers (55-65%), higher interest rate spreads, and potentially cash reserve requirements. Small-portfolio owners should target a WALT of at least 36 months and take proactive renewal steps when it drops below that threshold.
How much does it cost to replace a commercial tenant?
The total cost of replacing a commercial tenant typically equals 80-100% of the first year's rent from the replacement tenant. This includes vacancy carrying costs (property taxes, insurance, maintenance during the dark period), tenant improvement allowances ($5-$80 per square foot depending on property type), leasing commissions (4-6% of total lease value), and rent concessions (typically 1-3 months of free rent). Industrial tenants are the least expensive to replace, while office tenants are the most expensive due to longer vacancy periods and higher buildout costs.
How do lenders stress-test lease rollover risk?
Lenders stress-test lease rollover by modeling the departure of the next expiring tenant (or the largest tenant) and calculating the resulting DSCR during a re-leasing period. Most lenders require the stressed DSCR to remain above 1.15x. They also review the lease expiration schedule for concentration, flagging any portfolio where more than 30% of rent expires within 24 months. Some lenders apply a "dark value" methodology that values the property as if the expiring space were vacant, reducing the appraised value and therefore the maximum loan amount.
Should I use bridge financing to manage lease rollover risk?
Bridge financing is a strong option when your portfolio faces near-term lease expirations that coincide with a loan maturity or when tenants have already departed and you need time to re-lease before qualifying for permanent financing. Bridge loans offer 12-36 month terms with rates typically ranging from 8-12%, and lenders are comfortable with transitional occupancy levels. The key is having a credible re-leasing plan and sufficient reserves to cover debt service during the stabilization period. Visit our bridge loan programs page for current terms.
What is the best way to stagger lease expirations in a small portfolio?
The most effective approach is to limit lease expirations to no more than 20-25% of total rental income in any single year. When negotiating new leases or renewals, intentionally choose terms that fill gaps in your expiration schedule. If you have two tenants expiring in 2028, push the next renewal toward 2029 or 2030 by offering a modest incentive for the desired term length. For portfolios with existing concentration, prioritize renewing your most creditworthy tenants on longer terms first, then use subsequent renewals and new leases to fill remaining gaps. This is typically a 2-4 year process for a portfolio starting from a concentrated position.
Clearhouse Lending helps commercial property owners navigate lease rollover risk through strategic financing solutions. Whether you need to refinance a stabilized asset, secure bridge financing during a transition period, or structure acquisition debt for a property with near-term expirations, our team specializes in small-portfolio commercial lending nationwide. Contact us today to discuss your portfolio.